COMPLAS 2023

Forecast System for Rain-Induced Landslides Using Transient Finite Element Digital Twins

  • Commend, Stephane (HES-SO, HEIA-FR)
  • Minini, Jocelyn (HES-SO, HEIA-FR)
  • Buchs, Colette (HES-SO, HEIA-FR)
  • Jacot-Descombes, Gil (GeoMod SA)

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It is now known for sure that climate change will produce heavier rainfalls in this century, yielding more important mudslides and debris flows, threatening existing buildings and infrastructures in the Swiss Alps. Initiation of such debris flows can be predicted using appropriate numerical methods, like coupled nonlinear transient finite element models computed with ZSoil. In this paper we propose a framework capable of detecting the triggering of a debris flow using two-dimensional finite element digital twins associated with slopes where a risk of initiation has been identified. Topography, stratigraphy and hydrogeological conditions are introduced in the model. Soils are modelled with the hardening soil with small strain extension constitutive law, and the treatment of the unsaturated zone follows the Van Genuchten model. Rainfall forecast is read from the Swiss National Office for Meteorology and introduced twenty-four hours in advance as a flux boundary condition in the finite element model. The transient coupled finite element model is then computed continuously twenty-four hours in advance, allowing to predict failure before it happens, as well as the concerned volume, and therefore issue an alarm if an infrastructure located downhill is at risk.